Blueline976's Space

While surfing along the Xbox.com Halo 2 forums, I found this thread about Shook On3's 6th Montage trailer. I watched it, it's good, I don't have anything else to say because I'm extremely tired because I basically got maybe an hour or two of GOOD sleep.

Anyway, here's the trailer, hosted on "Halo3forum.com", which is just H2F (Halo2forum.com) with a different name basically....

Trailer, Hosted by H2F

Now, I'm off to continue working on a map I've been fiddling around with on Far Cry Instincts: Predator.

As I said, the PGR3 review is coming, and maybe this week. Also, a Far Cry Instincts: Predator review, and possibly an Over G Fighters review! Stay tuned here, and if you're on the Xbox.com forums, watch my signature for news from this MSN Space.

Hope everyone had a good 4th of July (Americans!), and of course, for my Canadian viewers, a good Canada Day. I was busy through the whole week basically, so I didn't update.

What I did do yesterday, is pick up Over G Fighters. Very good game if you like flight simulators, so if you do, ignore the reviews, such as the one from IGN.com. 6.1? Yeah right. I'd give it an 8/10. I'm not fully into flight-sims, but this is an exception.

New from Wii60.com? Sure let's check...

Ok, found a good one! Anyone seen this ad? People are offended by it because it's "racist". I don't care much about the subject, but Sony had a defense against the ad.

Sony Computer Entertainment has defended itself against accusations of racism over a controversial advert for the new 'Ceramic white' PSP. http://www.eurogamer.net/article.php?article_id=65895

Blah-blah-blah...I don't care for the matter, but read through it if you want.

So that's about it for this update...

Actually, one more thing...

France won against Portugal and now they're going to the FIFA World Cup Finals against. Italy...FRANCE FTW!

//Blueline976

  Well then, I've been lacking on my MSN Space, but here's an update for you guys, or anyone that reads this.

First, the update section.

---: Hmm, what's going on...Oh! Well since it is July 3rd right now, I should probably mention that I've been throwing my house around to clean it well enough for my parents, because we have a 4th of July party tomorrow. Should be fun!

Wii60?

---: Let's see what Wii60 has for me to use as news...Ah, here we go.

Posted by, "YouCantReadThis (sihTdaeRtnaCuoY)", on the Wii60.com forums.

"Sony's PS3 "could come in third" in console battle"

"David Cole of DFC Intelligence writes that PS3 could come in third place in this generation's console war."

DFC Intelligence's David Cole ponders Sony's future, and says the firm could wind up behind Microsoft and Nintendo in the next generation.

Finally most of the cards are on the table and we can start making some more definitive statements about where we think the video game market is going. DFC Intelligence is always adjusting its forecasting model based on changes in the marketplace. Suffice to say events of the past six months have forced us to overhaul our models like never before.

It now appears clear that this new generation of console systems is going to result in a big shake-up in the game industry power structure.  While it has always been clear that Sony's dominant market share was destined to decline, there now appears to be the distinct possibility the PlayStation 3 could end up third in market share behind both the Xbox 360 and Nintendo Wii.

However, we should emphasize a third place finish for Sony is only one of several possible scenarios. Unlike many market prognosticators, DFC does not claim to know exactly how the market will shakeout. We have no way of knowing exactly what sales will be and which platform will be the market leader. 

Different Factors

When we release forecasts we use multiple scenarios that adjust for different factors like price decreases, hit software titles, market competition etc. In the entertainment market there are always unknowns when it comes to consumer behavior and we like to build that uncertainty into our forecast models. When we say the PlayStation 3 could end up in third place that is a worst case scenario for Sony. Furthermore, much will depend on variables such as Sony's execution and most importantly how rapidly they can bring down the PS3 price.

When building forecasts we use several factors to estimate how well a system will do. Many of the variables in our forecasts are assumptions of future performance. By changing these future assumptions we can build different scenarios. Obviously, the more factors that are set in stone the more confident the forecast. When it comes to forecasting video game hardware performance the key factors include:

 

• Brand, Current Market Position and Past Consumer Behavior relative to all players in the marketplace.
• Current Software including Software Diversity, Third Party Support, Exclusives and Big Hits.
• Current Software for the Competition looking at all the above factors.
• Expected Upcoming Software looking at all the above factors.   
• Expected Upcoming Software for the Competition looking at all the above factors. 
• Current Price
• Current Price for the Competition.
• Expected Future Price.
• Expected Future Price for the Competition.
• Hardware, Extra Features, the "Wow Factor," Intangibles and the Ability to Pull a Rabbit Out of a Hat.

In looking at all these elements, Sony's clear strength is the first factor: brand strength and current market position. The glaring weakness of the PlayStation 3 is price, especially when compared to the competition.

However, it is more than just an issue of whether the PlayStation brand strength can justify a premium price. Of course, Sony would like to point to the hardware horsepower and extra features like Blu-ray. The problem is that is only one factor in our forecasting matrix.  Furthermore, with the competition having features like Xbox Live and the Nintendo Wii controller, the PS3 may not have that much of an advantage in the elusive "Wow Factor."

That gets to the heart of the biggest concern with the PlayStation 3. Sony has done very little to justify why the system is worth a premium price for consumers that don't care about raw hardware performance and are not hard-core audio/visual consumers. Unfortunately we believe that represents over 90% of the consumers in the marketplace.

(Page 2)

It has often been said that it all comes down to software, i.e. the games.  While our matrix has only 4 out of 10 variables that deal with software, obviously software is crucial. When talking about entertainment software, people often refer to the "killer application," or the hit product that drives a system's sales.

However, we think hit software is only one part of the equation.  It is our view that the PlayStation systems have been successful not because of hit software but mainly because of software diversity and third-party support.  In essence, Sony helped expand the market by reaching a more casual consumer that wasn't so concerned with the latest big hit.

Of course, the PlayStation 2 had more than its share of big hits, most notably the Grand Theft Auto series. However, we estimate that less than 20% of PlayStation 2 owners bought a GTA game.  Meanwhile the Xbox with Halo and Nintendo's lineup of mega-franchises were nothing to sneeze at in the hits department.

Without GTA buyers, the PS2 would still have outsold the competition by more than 3 to 1.  The secret to the PS2's success was more in the wide range of product offerings: all kinds of sports games, racing games, RPGs, action titles, big name licenses, kid friendly products, RPGs with Disney characters, etc.  Japan had Final Fantasy and Dragon Quest, Europe had EyeToy and SingStar.  In all markets, the PlayStation2 was a complete entertainment system for the family priced under $300.

Different consumer

It now appears all that wasn't good enough for Sony.  With the PlayStation 3 the company is going after the high-end power user.  It is almost as if Coca-Cola not only decided to go with a new formula, but also decided to exit the low brow soft drink business to go into high-end wines.  Of course, there is a market for high-end products but it is 1) a very different consumer type and 2) not nearly as big as the blue collar mass market.  Wal-mart sells more toys than FAO Schwartz and McDonald's sells more beef than Ruth's Chris Steak House.

Looking at Sony's portable PSP system shows some other dangers in trying to be too many things at once.  The PSP is designed to be much more than a game system, it is a complete portable entertainment package.  With a beautiful, sleek look, the ability to play music, movies, games, wi-fi connectivity etc, the PSP seemed like a bargain at $250 and less.

On the surface it seems like the PSP has been a huge success.  By the end of fiscal 2006, Sony announced they had shipped over 17 million PSP systems worldwide.  This was comparable to the Nintendo DS shipments at almost twice the price.  However, underneath the surface the PSP seems more about style than substance.  The system truly excels at none of its functions.  Meanwhile, the DS seems to be really expanding the market where the PlayStation brand had been dominant.  Titles like Nintendogs and Brain Age add the type of product diversity that drove over 100 million consumers to buy each of the first two PlayStation systems.

Trend Conscious

Right now, the Nintendo DS is having some of its strongest success in Japan, while the PSP holds its own in North America and Europe.  However, Japan's trend conscious consumers are often a harbinger of worldwide success.  In the 1990s, Nintendo's business in Japan started to decline faster than it did in North America.  Could the PSP's performance in Japan be a harbinger of things to come for Sony?

Of course, the big problem with the PlayStation 3 is price, and in theory that can be easily solved by simply lowering the price.  There is always that core group of consumers that will rush out to buy a new PlayStation system no matter what the price.  So it would make sense for Sony to gain as much revenue as possible from those consumers before lowering the price.  The vast majority of consumers will not be in the market for a new system until holiday 2007 or later.

Our concern is that 1) Sony's hands may be tied in regard to price cuts and 2) Sony drastically underestimated the competition.  The price of the PlayStation 3 does not exist in a vacuum and consumers will clearly look at the competitive alternatives.  Right now both the Xbox 360 and Nintendo Wii are looking like much better alternatives than they did a year ago.  Core PlayStation franchises like Grand Theft Auto, Final Fantasy, Dragon Quest and others are starting to appear on other systems.  In short, we have seen absolutely nothing that would justify a $200 price difference.

Can Sony afford to lose its position in the video game marketplace for a generation of game systems?  That is becoming a crucial question.  If Sony took a $200 loss on every system to become more price competitive and maintain market share that works out to $2 billion for every 10 million units.  Will Sony investors swallow that type of loss?

In forecasting the market we can say this with confidence: a $600 price point is okay for launch but it will not fly in holiday 2007.  If Sony wants to drive unit volume 2007 needs to be not only the year of price cuts, but the year of drastic price cuts.  There is going to be a shakeup in the video game industry and even if Sony executes perfectly there could be a new market leader in two years.  Stay tuned, next month we will formally unveil some of the actual numbers in our forecasts.  This month we will just say that yes, Sony could easily go from first to worst in the video game market.   

DFC Intelligence's research services provide detailed strategic analysis of the interactive entertainment industry.

Nice article, and I agree with the guy. In the last paragraph, he says that a $600 price point is fine for the launch of the PS3, but Sony definitely needs to lower the point for Christmas/ Holiday 2007, or IMO, the PS3 will flop, just like it's Blu-Ray companion.

Now onto some Xbox.com news.

---: I've been posting around mostly on the Halo 2, and Xbox.com, My Xbox, and the new forums topics for the last day or so, and things have been hectic.

From flame wars in the Halo 2 section, to nice honest questions in the New Forums topic, I haven't had enough time to focus and not get into any flame wars. The New Forums section has been a big help, and I think I'm on my way to getting a Community User Level 5. If I stay on topic, be a good poster, and ignore the trash that is contantly being put up in the Halo 2 forums, I'll be good. It's a nice place, if you pick your base.

Oblivion anyone?

---: I rented The Elder Scrolls IV: Oblivion last...Monday-ish I think. The first time, I borrowed it from my friend. Very good game, I suggest buying it. I got a crap-load of achievements just like last time also. I was only 1-2 quests away from finishing the Thieves Guild too...

Damn you Hollywood Video for not having the 7-Day Grace period!

New stuff!

---: I recently bought a new headset, since I've gone through 3 of the standard Microsoft Xbopx 360 headsets, and they all broke. The one I have is a Plantronics X30. It's a very, very, very good microphone, though the only flaw is that adjusting and having it secure on your thick skull takes a while, since it "hangs" under the ear. I suggest buying it. Only $30.00!

I also won some Geltabz (thumb grips that you put on your 360's controller's analog sticks), from Xbox Live Radio. They work well, surprisingly. I suggest picking up some, or visit Xboxliveradio.com and listen into the show on Saturday's, and you could win some! I think you can get them at Walmart for like 5 bucks...Yeah, cheap, yet useful!

That's it for this week. I'll probably be doing updates once a week now. I'm also posting pictures of my headset, and the controller with the Geltabz. I'm out!

New from BSF, an Xbox Live machinima group, has released a new trailer for their new project, being filmed on Far Cry Instincts: Predator. It's a very funny trailer, maybe you'll enjoy it!

Linkage.

Posted by MarioFreak_55 on the Wii60.com forums.

---

Little quote from Sony's embarrassing E3 Press Conference... Anyway, while searching the forums on one of my favorite websites, Wii60.com, I found this article. It seems the PS3 will have half, or less than half of the graphical power that the Xbox 360 has.

Posted by dpcough on the Wii60.com Forums...

"According to a story on, TheInquirer.net, the PS3 will have a weaker system then Xbox 360." Quote: AFTER BREAKING THE news to me about PS3 RSX speeds earlier on the flight to Japan, my row-mate said 'if you think that's interesting, wait till you see this. Cell is hurting, badly'. For those of you that believe in religions with karmic tendencies, scoops like this meant one of two things, the wings of the plane are about to fall off and I am going to die in a fiery ball, or worse yet, the movie selection will be worrisome. Cell memory access appears to be broken, RSX has half the triangle setup rate of the ATI chip in XBox360, and the true horror, Big Momma's House 2 and a Queen Latifa movie. With the movie selection still making my brain throb from the glances I caught, I furiously took notes on what the source was saying. He started out saying that the RSX can only write about half as much vertex data as it can fetch, not an ideal situation by any stretch, but survivable. Then came the horrible news, RSX appears to be limited to setting up 275 Million triangles/second, anemic compared to the 500+ million in XBox360. When asked about this apparent thumping dished out by MS, the reply from one notable ISV relations boffin was a terse 'What a Piece of Junk'. Talk about a steak in the heart. Half the triangle setup capability in the PS3, could things get worse? Yes, far far worse, how about another disparity of three orders of magnitude? No, I am not joking, looking at Sony's own figures, Cell appears to be pretty badly broken. For main memory, it looks like Cell has about 25GBps of main memory bandwidth, and RSX is about 15-20GBps. Achievable bandwidth is between about two thirds of that and nearly 100%, clearly the elves in the caves surrounding Rambus central did something right with XDR. That is the happy news. For local memory, the measured vs theoretical bandwidth is missing, I wonder why? RSX is at a solid 22.4GBps for both read and write, good job there green team. Then comes the blue team with Cell. Local memory write is about 4GBps, 40% of the next slowest bandwidth there. Then comes the bomb from hell, the Cell local memory read bandwidth is a stunning 16MBps, note that is a capital M to connote Mega vs a capital G to connote Giga. This is a three order of magnitude oopsie, and it is an oopsie, as Sony put it "(no, this isn't a typo...)". If you can write at 250x the read speed, it makes Cell local memory just about useless. That means you do all your work out of main memory, and the whole point of local is, well, pointless. This can lead to contention issues for the main memory bus, and all sorts of nightmarish to debug performance problems. Basically, if this Sony presentation to PS3 devs shown to us is correct, it looks like PS3 will be hobbled in a serious way. The next slide goes on to say "Don't read from local memory, but write to main memory with RSX(tm) and read it from there instead", and repeats the table numbers. This is very very bad. The number of times the presentation goes on to say that it is correct, and the lack of anything like "this will be fixed by production steppings, so take measures X, Y and Z" say to me that it is not a fixable snafu. Remember at E3 when I said that the PS3 demos there were object sparse? Any guesses why? Someone screwed up so badly it looks like it will relegate the console to second place behind the 360. All the devs I talked to were lukewarm on the 360 architecture but universally negative on the PS3. Revelations like this go a long way to explain why you keep hearing about simmering problems from the Sony devs. You end up with a console with half the triangle setup rate of the 360, a crippled CPU that is a ***** to program, and tools that are atrocious compared to the 360. To make matters worse, you have an arrogant set of execs telling us that twice the price is worth it for half the power, a year late. If it isn't already too late, Sony had better do something about this recto-cranial inversion or it may very well sink the console." Looks like Sony is screwed right now, thus the MASSIVE DAMAGE quote.

At any rate, the PGR3 review has been cancelled for now until I can actually get time to make it. More updates to come more often now, since school is coming to a close (June 21st for me), and more updates about Sony, MS, and Nintendo from Wii60.com. Also, Bungie.net has released a "behind the scenes" movie about what it took to make the E3 Announcement. It also has new footage. Go check it out at Bungie.net.